1
Koehler, Derek J., Harvey, Nigel. Blackwell handbook of judgment and decision making. Hoboken, NJ: Wiley InterScience 2008.
2
Hastie, Reid, Dawes, Robyn M. Rational choice in an uncertain world: the psychology of judgment and decision making. Thousand Oaks, Calif: Sage 2001.
3
Ray W. Cooksey. Judgment analysis. San Diego: Academic Press 1996.
4
Gigerenzer, Gerd, Todd, Peter M., ABC Research Group. Simple heuristics that make us smart. New York: Oxford University Press 1999.
5
Klein GA. Decision making in action: models and methods. Norwood, N.J: Ablex Pub 1993.
6
Kahneman, Daniel, Slovic, Paul, Tversky, Amos. Judgment under uncertainty: heuristics and biases. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press 1982.
7
Klein, Gary A. Sources of power: how people make decisions. Cambridge, Mass: MIT Press 1999.
8
Montgomery H, Lipshitz R, Brehmer B, et al. How professionals make decisions. Mahwah, N.J.: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates 2005.
9
John W. Payne. The adaptive decision maker. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press 1993.
10
Simon, Herbert A. Models of bounded rationality. Cambridge, Mass: MIT Press 1982.
11
Harvey, Nigel. Thinking & reasoning: Volume 7, issue 1: Studying judgement : models and methods. Basingstoke: Psychology Press 2001.
12
Hammond KR. Computer Graphics as an Aid to Learning. Science. 1971;172:903–8. doi: 10.1126/science.172.3986.903
13
In one word: Not from experience %u2606. Acta Psychologica. doi: 0001-6918(80)90034-7
14
Harries C, Harvey N. Taking advice, using information and knowing what you are doing. Acta Psychologica. 2000;104:399–416. doi: 10.1016/S0001-6918(00)00038-X
15
Kluger AN, DeNisi A. The effects of feedback interventions on performance: A historical review, a meta-analysis, and a preliminary feedback intervention theory. Psychological Bulletin. 1996;119:254–84.
16
Harvey N, Fischer I. Develoment of experience-based decision making: The role of outcome feedback. The routines of decision making. New York: Psychology Press 2008:119–37.
17
Camerer CF, Hogarth RM. The effects of financial incentives. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty. 1999;19:7–42. doi: 10.1023/A:1007850605129
18
Dawes R, Faust D, Meehl P. Clinical versus actuarial judgment. Science. 1989;243:1668–74. doi: 10.1126/science.2648573
19
DECISION TECHNOLOGY - Annual Review of Psychology, 52(1):581. http://www.annualreviews.org.libproxy.ucl.ac.uk/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev.psych.52.1.581
20
Lerner, Jennifer S.1,3. Accounting for the Effects of Accountability. Psychological Bulletin. ;125:255–75.
21
Larrick, Rick. Debiasing. Blackwell handbook of judgment and decision making. Hoboken, NJ: Wiley InterScience 2008.
22
Soll, Jack B.1. Strategies for Revising Judgment: How (and How Well) People Use Others’ Opinions. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition. ;35:780–805.
23
Bonaccio S, Dalal RS. Advice taking and decision-making: An integrative literature review, and implications for the organizational sciences. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes. 2006;101:127–51. doi: 10.1016/j.obhdp.2006.07.001
24
Yaniv I. Receiving other people’s advice: Influence and benefit. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes. 2004;93:1–13. doi: 10.1016/j.obhdp.2003.08.002
25
Yaniv I, Milyavsky M. Using advice from multiple sources to revise and improve judgments. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes. 2007;103:104–20. doi: 10.1016/j.obhdp.2006.05.006
26
Yaniv I, Kleinberger E. Advice Taking in Decision Making: Egocentric Discounting and Reputation Formation. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes. 2000;83:260–81. doi: 10.1006/obhd.2000.2909
27
Ericsson & Lehman (1996). http://www.annualreviews.org/doi/pdf/10.1146/annurev.psych.47.1.273
28
Gobet F, Simon HA. Templates in Chess Memory: A Mechanism for Recalling Several Boards. Cognitive Psychology. 1996;31:1–40. doi: 10.1006/cogp.1996.0011
29
Schmidt HG, Boshuizen HPA. On the origin of intermediate effects in clinical case recall. Memory & Cognition. 1993;21:338–51. doi: 10.3758/BF03208266
30
Schmidt HG, Boshuizen HPA. On acquiring expertise in medicine. Educational Psychology Review. 1993;5:205–21. doi: 10.1007/BF01323044
31
Phillips JK. Expertise in judgement and decision making: a case for training intuitive decision skills. Blackwell handbook of judgment and decision making. Hoboken, NJ: Wiley InterScience 2008:297–315.
32
Chi MTH, Glasner R, Rees E. Expertise in problem solving. Advances in the psychology of human intelligence. Hillsdale, N.J.: L. Erlbaum 1982:7–75.
33
Ericsson, K Anders, Krampe, Ralf Th. Tesch-Romer, Clemens. The Role of Deliberate Practice in the Acquisition of Expert Performance. Psychological Review. ;100:363–406.
34
Harvey N. Why Are Judgments Less Consistent in Less Predictable Task Situations? Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes. 1995;63:247–63. doi: 10.1006/obhd.1995.1077
35
Lawrence M, Goodwin P, O’Connor M, et al. Judgmental forecasting: A review of progress over the last 25years. International Journal of Forecasting. 2006;22:493–518. doi: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2006.03.007
36
Reimers S, Harvey N. Sensitivity to autocorrelation in judgmental time series forecasting. International Journal of Forecasting. 2011;27:1196–214. doi: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2010.08.004
37
Harvey N. Use of heuristics: Insights from forecasting research. Thinking & Reasoning. 2007;13:5–24. doi: 10.1080/13546780600872502
38
Harvey N, Reimers S. Trend damping: Under-adjustment, experimental artifact, or adaptation to features of the natural environment? Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition. 2013;39:589–607.
39
Dijksterhuis A. On Making the Right Choice: The Deliberation-Without-Attention Effect. Science. 2006;311:1005–7. doi: 10.1126/science.1121629
40
Johansson P. Failure to Detect Mismatches Between Intention and Outcome in a Simple Decision Task. Science. 2005;310:116–9. doi: 10.1126/science.1111709
41
Newell BR, Wong KY, Cheung JCH, et al. Think, blink or sleep on it? The impact of modes of thought on complex decision making. The Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology. 2009;62:707–32. doi: 10.1080/17470210802215202
42
Newell BR, Shanks DR. Unconscious influences on decision making: A critical review. Behavioral and Brain Sciences. 2014;38:1–19. doi: 10.1017/S0140525X12003214
43
Petitmengin C, Remillieux A, Cahour B, et al. A gap in Nisbett and Wilson’s findings? A first-person access to our cognitive processes. Consciousness and Cognition. 2013;22:654–69. doi: 10.1016/j.concog.2013.02.004
44
NieuwensteinEtAl_2015.pdf.
45
Bechara A. Deciding Advantageously Before Knowing the Advantageous Strategy. Science. 1997;275:1293–5. doi: 10.1126/science.275.5304.1293
46
Bechara A, Damasio H, Tranel D, et al. The Iowa Gambling Task and the somatic marker hypothesis: some questions and answers. Trends in Cognitive Sciences. 2005;9:159–62. doi: 10.1016/j.tics.2005.02.002
47
Busemeyer JR, Stout JC. A contribution of cognitive decision models to clinical assessment: Decomposing performance on the Bechara gambling task. Psychological Assessment. 2002;14:253–62.
48
Damasio, Antonio R. Descartes’ error: emotion, reason, and the human brain. Rev. ed. London: Vintage 2006.
49
Dunn BD, Dalgleish T, Lawrence AD. The somatic marker hypothesis: A critical evaluation. Neuroscience & Biobehavioral Reviews. 2006;30:239–71. doi: 10.1016/j.neubiorev.2005.07.001
50
Maia TV. From the Cover: A reexamination of the evidence for the somatic marker hypothesis: What participants really know in the Iowa gambling task. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 2004;101:16075–80. doi: 10.1073/pnas.0406666101
51
SteingroeverEtAl2013PA.pdf.
52
Hastie, Reid. Inside the juror: the psychology of juror decision making. Cambridge [England]: Cambridge University Press 1992.
53
Heller, Kevin Jon. The Cognitive Psychology of CircumstantialI Evidence. Michigan Law Review. ;105:241–305.
54
Order effects in belief updating: The belief-adjustment model %u2606 %u2606%u2606. Cognitive Psychology. doi: 0010-0285(92)90002-J
55
Kassin SM, Sommers SR. Inadmissible Testimony, Instructions to Disregard, and the Jury: Substantive Versus Procedural Considerations. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin. 1997;23:1046–54. doi: 10.1177/01461672972310005
56
Pennington N, Hastie R. Explaining the evidence: Tests of the Story Model for juror decision making. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology. 1992;62:189–206.
57
Baron, Jonathan1,2. Biases in the Quantitative Measurement of Values for Public Decisions. Psychological Bulletin. ;122:72–88.
58
Jane Beattie, Judith Covey, Paul Dolan, et al. On the contingent valuation of safety and the safety of contingent valuation. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty. 1998;17:5–26. doi: 10.1023/A:1007711416843
59
Skeem JL, Polaschek DLL, Patrick CJ, et al. Psychopathic Personality: Bridging the Gap Between Scientific Evidence and Public Policy. Psychological Science in the Public Interest. 2011;12:95–162. doi: 10.1177/1529100611426706
60
Parsons, D. W. Public policy: an introduction to the theory and practice of policy analysis. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar 1995.
61
Mitchell, Robert Cameron, Carson, Richard T. Using surveys to value public goods: the contingent valuation method. Washington, D.C.: Resources for the future 1989.
62
Haskell, Robert E. Transfer of learning: cognition, instruction, and reasoning. San Diego, Calif: Academic Press 2001.
63
Slovic, Paul. The perception of risk. London: Earthscan 2000.
64
Thaler, Richard H., Sunstein, Cass R. Nudge: improving decisions about health, wealth and happiness. London: Penguin 2009.
65
Michie S, West R. Behaviour change theory and evidence: a presentation to Government. Health Psychology Review. 2013;7:1–22. doi: 10.1080/17437199.2011.649445
66
Pidgeon, N, Gregory R. Judgment, decision making, and public policy. Blackwell handbook of judgment and decision making. Hoboken, NJ: Wiley InterScience 2008:547–66.
67
Download the MINDSPACE report | mindspace online. http://www.mindspace-online.org/?p=23
68
Behavioural Insights Team annual update. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/behavioural-insights-team-annual-update
69
Ladouceur R, Sévigny S. Structural Characteristics of Video Lotteries: Effects of a Stopping Device on Illusion of Control and Gambling Persistence. Journal of Gambling Studies. 2005;21:117–31. doi: 10.1007/s10899-005-3028-5
70
Matute, Vadillo, Blanco, & Musca (2007).
71
Ayton P, Fischer I. The hot hand fallacy and the gambler’s fallacy: Two faces of subjective randomness? Memory & Cognition. 2004;32:1369–78. doi: 10.3758/BF03206327
72
Clark L, Lawrence AJ, Astley-Jones F, et al. Gambling Near-Misses Enhance Motivation to Gamble and Recruit Win-Related Brain Circuitry. Neuron. 2009;61:481–90. doi: 10.1016/j.neuron.2008.12.031
73
Delfabbro P. The Stubborn Logic of Regular Gamblers: Obstacles and Dilemmas in Cognitive Gambling Research. Journal of Gambling Studies. 2004;20:1–21. doi: 10.1023/B:JOGS.0000016701.17146.d0
74
The hot hand in basketball: On the misperception of random sequences %u2606. Cognitive Psychology. doi: 0010-0285(85)90010-6
75
Griffiths M. Fruit machine gambling: The importance of structural characteristics. Journal of Gambling Studies. 1993;9:101–20. doi: 10.1007/BF01014863
76
Griffiths MD. The cognitive psychology of gambling. Journal of Gambling Studies. 1990;6:31–42. doi: 10.1007/BF01015747
77
Langer EJ. The illusion of control. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology. 1975;32:311–28.
78
Garling T, Kirchler E, Lewis A, et al. Psychology, Financial Decision Making, and Financial Crises. Psychological Science in the Public Interest. 2009;10:1–47. doi: 10.1177/1529100610378437
79
Barberis N, Huang M. Mental Accounting, Loss Aversion, and Individual Stock Returns. The Journal of Finance. 2001;56:1247–92. doi: 10.1111/0022-1082.00367
80
Hirshleifer D. Investor Psychology and Asset Pricing. The Journal of Finance. 2001;56:1533–97. doi: 10.1111/0022-1082.00379
81
Shleifer A, Vishny RW. The Limits of Arbitrage. The Journal of Finance. 1997;52:35–55. doi: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1997.tb03807.x
82
Shafir E. Money Illusion.
83
Muradoglu G. Behavioural finance: the role of psychological factors in financial decisions - ProQuest.
84
Benartzi S. Myopic Loss Aversion and the Equity Premium Puzzle.
85
Benartzi, Shlomo, Benartzi s. Naive diversification strategies in defined contribution saving plans. The American Economic Review. ;91:79–98.
86
Glaser, M, Noth M, Weber M. Chapter. Blackwell handbook of judgment and decision making. Hoboken, NJ: Wiley InterScience 2008.
87
Shefrin H. Beyond greed and fear: understanding behavioral finance and the psychology of investing. [Oxford]: Oxford Scholarship Online 2003.
88
Konečni, Vladimir J., Ebbesen, Ebbe B. The Criminal justice system: a social-psychological approach. San Francisco: Freeman 1982.
89
DHAMI MK. Lay Magistrates’ Interpretations of ‘Substantial Grounds’ for Denying Bail. The Howard Journal of Criminal Justice. 2010;no-no. doi: 10.1111/j.1468-2311.2010.00623.x
90
Hucklesby, Anthea. Bail or Jail - The Practical Operation of the Bail Act 1976. 1996;23.
91
Brooks-Gordon, Belinda, Freeman, Michael D. A. Law and psychology. Oxford: Oxford University Press 2006.
92
Association of American Medical Colleges. Academic medicine.
93
Coderre S, Mandin H, Harasym PH, et al. Diagnostic reasoning strategies and diagnostic success. Medical Education. 2003;37:695–703. doi: 10.1046/j.1365-2923.2003.01577.x
94
Custers et al. (1996).
95
Arthur S. Elstein and Alan Schwarz. Evidence Base Of Clinical Diagnosis: Clinical Problem Solving And Diagnostic Decision Making: Selective Review Of The Cognitive Literature. BMJ: British Medical Journal. 2002;324:729–32.
96
A Kushniruk, V Patel, A Marley. Small worlds and medical expertise: implications for medical cognition and knowledge engineering. International Journal of Medical Informatics. 1998;49:255–71. doi: 10.1016/S1386-5056(98)00044-6
97
Chapman GB. The psychology of medical decision making. Blackwell handbook of judgment and decision making. Hoboken, NJ: Wiley InterScience 2008:585–603.
98
Bettman JR, Luce MF, Payne JW. Constructive Consumer Choice Processes. Journal of Consumer Research. 1998;25:187–217. doi: 10.1086/209535
99
Iyengar SS, Lepper MR. When choice is demotivating: Can one desire too much of a good thing? Journal of Personality and Social Psychology. 2000;79:995–1006.
100
Scheibehenne B, Greifeneder R, Todd PM. Can There Ever Be Too Many Options? A Meta‐Analytic Review of Choice Overload. Journal of Consumer Research. 2010;37:409–25. doi: 10.1086/651235
101
Reason-based choice %u2606. Cognition. doi: 0010-0277(93)90034-S